Timing the ₿itcoin Cycle Top
Cycle Tops Are Very Hard to Time!
In the world of cycle analysis/trading, we mostly stick to timing the cycle bottoms. They're more reliable and consistent. Timing tops, on the other hand, is always tricky and can result in major headaches. Today, let's dive into Bitcoin ($BTC) cycle top because, with a small sample size, what can possibly go wrong!
So, what do we have? A sample size of two. To date, we've seen two full 4-year cycles in Bitcoin's history. In both prior cycles, the Yearly Cycle High (YCH) printed on month 35. As we sit here in July 2025 on month 32, we're getting very close to that YCH timing band.
October 2025 will mark month 35 - and looking at the weekly cycle, we can start to see where this YCH might land.
Weekly Cycle
The timing band for the monthly YCH points into October 2025. The current weekly cycle is looking to push toward the top of the bigger fork around week 26. We're currently on week 13, so there's plenty of time left before YCH.
As we look ahead to October 2025, here are some early signs of the topping process emerging:
- Negative Divergence
- Top of the Keltner Channel
- The top of the fork aligns perfectly around October 2025, projecting a potential cycle high at $140K.
Mega Cycle Fork (👇)
Daily Cycle
Coming out of the April ICL, we've seen a monster move that took us to all-time highs. The chart looks incredibly strong right now, but we're nearing the HCH over the next couple of weeks. Expect some consolidation into the HCL around the median line before the final push to the YCH.
$98K is our current cycle anchor ⚓︎ - failure to hold here would signal the start of declines in both the weekly and yearly cycles. As price climbs higher, we'll adjust this anchor upward to stay in sync!
Bitcoin Cycle Check-in
Let's circle back in a few months as we get closer to October. The top might come sooner than expected, but based on our two prior samples, it's likely to land right on month 35. 😉